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You may have heard that the US scrapped the Iranian nuclear deal this week, setting off a series of events that could very likely end up in a regional conflagration. But if that’s what you heard, then you heard wrong. In actuality, Trump signed an Executive Memorandum on Tuesday that reaffirmed his October 13, 2017 decision to deny re-certification of the JCPOA and lifted sanction waivers promised under that agreement.
Confused? Don’t worry, so is mostly everyone else. But here’s the bottom line: the “Iran nuclear deal” was not some treaty between the US and Iran. It was a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action signed by China, France, Russia the United Kingdom, the United States, the EU and Iran. In other words, only one player in this seven-member deal is walking away from the table.
This is not a trivial distinction. What it means is that it is still perfectly possible that the other signatories to the agreement could continue on with the agreement or hammer out some replacement for it. At the very least, Europe could stand up to Washington’s sanctions regime... ...if they followed Mish Shedlock’s advice and “Grow a Backbone on Something Important,” that is. As Mish points out, billions of dollars of European business are on the line. That money will be lost if the Europeans just roll over and accept US demands to wind down all business in Iran in the next three to six months...
...Now the punditsphere is openly musing on the questions of whether or not Europe has rebelled and what kind of relationship will be possible between Brussels and Washington going forward.
It’s a good question, and an important one. As I’ve pointed out many times before, we are being prepared for a transition away from the unipolar American-dominated world into a multi-polar BRICS-led “alternative” global system. As I’ve also pointed out many times before, this “alternative” is a false one, and those interested in human freedom should not be swept up in choosing sides in this false dialectic.
But make no mistake: a change is occurring, and with every passing year it is becoming more and more obvious that Europe’s long-term economic interests revolve around forging new, deeper ties with its Eurasian neighbors. Whether or not the EU ultimately goes along with America’s Iranian sanctions will be a bellwether of how quickly that change is taking place.
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